The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) has published the 2026 Up-rating Report.
This annual report projects contribution income and benefit expenditure for the National Insurance Fund of Great Britain up to and including 2030 to 2031 and is used as a source of information by ministers and Parliament.
Fund projections
The Up-rating report includes projections of the Fund up to and including 2030 to 2031. It also looks at the
- effect on the Fund of the proposed April 2026 up-ratings of State Pension and working age benefits paid from the Fund
- effect on the Fund of proposed changes to National Insurance rates limits and thresholds announced at the Autumn Budget and other changes
- short term sustainability of the Fund and whether additional financing is expected to be required
- sensitivity of the results to economic and policy assumptions (these variant projections do not reflect current government policy)
- interaction with the Northern Ireland National Insurance Fund
The projections assume there will be no further changes in National Insurance contribution rates, limits and thresholds beyond those announced in the Autumn Budget 2025.
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Fund balance
The report sets out how the Fund balance is projected to increase in 2025 to 2026, and in each year thereafter to 2030 to 2031.
Contribution income is estimated to exceed benefit expenditure in every subsequent year of the projection period, resulting in an increasing fund balance.
It is not anticipated that any additional financing will be required during this period under the principal assumptions.
Government Actuary Fiona Dunsire said “Although additional financing is not anticipated to be required during the projection period, the UK faces significant demographic challenges in the longer term. The changing age structure of the population, resulting in more pensioners relative to the working-age population, means that increases in benefit expenditure are expected to be greater than increases in contribution income. The Triple Lock also causes benefit expenditure to increase relative to contribution income.
These challenges will be considered in my next Quinquennial Review. In addition, the third State Pension age review and the Pensions Commission are considering aspects of the overall pensions system in the UK.”
Longer term projections of the Fund (up to 2085) can be found in the most recent (2020) Quinquennial Review of the Fund which was published in March 2022. Since then, there have been several changes to NICs as well as a period of unusually high inflation. The next Quinquennial Review of the Fund (publication date to be determined) will provide an update to these longer-term projections over the period starting April 2025.
