China’s ambition to challenge Boeing and Airbus with its own homegrown passenger jet is running into turbulence, with deliveries of finished aircraft likely to fall far short of its target announced for this year.
The C919 jet — a single-aisle passenger plane aiming to rival Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’ A320 – is made by state-owned aircraft manufacturer COMAC. Beijing is showcasing it as evidence of China’s technological advancement and progress in self-reliance, though it uses many Western sourced components.
Trade friction with Washington threatens to prevent COMAC from securing core parts for the program that has been supported by huge Chinese government subsidies.
“COMAC faces significant risk from the volatile policy environment, with its supply chains vulnerable to export restrictions and tit-for-tat measures between the U.S. and China,” said Max J. Zenglein, Asia-Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board think tank.
The C919 has 48 major suppliers from the U.S. — including GE, Honeywell and Collins — 26 from Europe and 14 from China, according to analysts at the Bank of America. Trump threatened to impose new export controls on “critical” software to China after Beijing imposed stricter export controls on rare earths.
“Existing choke points are being exploited in the deal making process between governments,” Zenglein said. “This is likely to continue as critical dependencies have become political bargaining chips.”
Beijing has high hopes for the C919, which made its maiden commercial flight in 2023. The mid-sized jet is meant to help fill vast domestic demand for new aircraft over the next few decades. China hopes to expand sales beyond its borders and fly globally, including in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.
COMAC delivered 13 C919s to Chinese carriers last year and only seven as of October this year, despite plans to ramp up production and deliver 30 jets in 2025, according to the aviation consultancy Cirium.
China’s biggest state-owned airlines — Air China, China Eastern and China Southern — are the only commercial airlines currently flying a total of around 20 C919s.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have “directly affected” delivery schedules for the C919, said Dan Taylor, head of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA. For one, output plans were disrupted when the U.S. suspended export licenses for the jet’s LEAP-1C engines around May, resuming them in July, he said.
U.S.-controlled technology that needs export licensing for the LEAP-1C engines — jointly built by the U.S.’s GE Aerospace and France’s Safran -— means the C919’s engines require U.S. export clearance, Taylor said, making it “inherently sensitive to political shifts.”
“Engine and avionics dependence on Western suppliers continues to expose the program to policy decisions beyond COMAC’s control,” Taylor explained.
Geopolitical tensions alone are not the only cause for slower than expected production of the C919s. The program has been “marked by caution and prioritizing quality and safety, so there also may be some operational reasons for the slower production ramp up,” said Zenglein from The Conference Board.
While “it has always been the aim to reduce the reliance on foreign components as quickly as possible” for the C919, Zenglein said, many analysts say it is a challenging process. China’s own engine alternative — the CJ-1000A under development by state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) — is still under testing, according to IBA.
Several airlines outside of China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in flying the C919, but a lack of international certification has so far prevented the C919 from flying beyond China. Certifications from the U.S. and the European Union’s aviation regulators could take years.
For the C919 to succeed, it “needs to have each one of three things: good economics, a prompt global product support network, and certification from safety agencies”, said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory. “Any one of these three alone doesn’t mean much,” he said.
China will need 9,570 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, according to Airbus’ latest market forecast, more than 80% of them single-aisle jets like the C919.
COMAC’s faces a growing challenge from Airbus, which is expanding its manufacturing capacity in China. A second assembly line is due to begin operating in 2026, allowing Airbus to increase its production of A320 single-aisle jets in China – an aircraft model similar to the C919.
Analysts expect that it will take years for COMAC to break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly in global aircraft share. By the late 2020s, COMAC will likely grow within China and possibly establish regional exports, said IBA’s Taylor.
In the near term, a lack of international certification will be “delaying any meaningful Western-market entry” for the jet and export control volatility will likely continue to undermine its global expansion plans, Taylor added.
