More than 6 million people in England could be diagnosed with cancer by 2040, according to a group of 60 cancer charities.
Experts have said the new figures, which would see someone diagnosed every two minutes, are the result of lifestyle choices and an ageing population.
Cancer charity coalition One Cancer Voice is urging the government to take immediate action, including setting early diagnosis targets and implementing stronger cancer prevention policies.
Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK and One Cancer Voice representative, said: “Nearly one in two of us will be diagnosed with cancer in our lifetime – everyone will be impacted by the disease, whether they receive a diagnosis themselves or have a friend, family member or loved one who does.”
There have been 5.5 million cancer diagnoses in England over the past 15 years, and the research predicts a 14.2 per cent rise in cases over the next 15 years, with around 6.3 million expected by 2040. The study also suggests that common cancer diagnoses will reach a record high in the next 15 years.
Professor Pat Price, leading oncologist and co-founder of the Catch Up With Cancer campaign, said: “The real drivers are an ageing population and lifestyle factors fuelling a huge rise in cancer cases in areas across the country.
“NHS cancer services are already buckling, leading to routine delays to lifesaving cancer treatment. This surge will push the system past breaking point, and not enough is being done about it.
“Unless we act fast, more people will be diagnosed and die needlessly of cancer. Ministers must ensure the upcoming cancer plan is fully funded, boosts treatment capacity, and ends delays to treatment.”
Although survival rates are improving, the charities warn that the spike in cases could put further pressure on health services.
The research claims the South East of England could see the biggest rise in diagnoses, with more than 1 million cases between now and 2040. The North West is expected to follow, with an estimated 865,000 cases, while the East of England and the South West are projected to have 722,000 cases, and London is forecast to have 714,000.
The difference is largely a symptom of the number of people living in those regions and their ageing populations.
Matt Sample, senior policy manager at Cancer Research UK, said: “Cancer cases are set to rise across every region in England between now and 2040. However, we know that people in poorer areas are currently more likely to be diagnosed late, with more barriers to getting the best treatment.
“This is unacceptable, and it needs to change.”
In February, the Department of Health and Social Care launched a call for evidence to help shape a national cancer plan, the blueprint of which is expected to be released later this year.
One Cancer Voice has called for the plan to meet six “tests”.
It wants a pledge to meet all cancer waiting times by the end of parliament in 2029, have new and earlier diagnosis targets and improved screening programmes, strong cancer prevention policies, addressed inequalities in patient care, improved access to clinical trials for cancer patients and improved support for people to live well with and beyond cancer.
Figures released by the NHS in March revealed that more than one in four patients undergoing urgent cancer checks had to wait more than 28 days for the disease to be confirmed or ruled out.
Ms Mitchell said: “If the UK government delivers an ambitious, fully funded strategy, we could save more lives and transform cancer outcomes, propelling England from world lagging to among world leading when it comes to tackling this disease.
“Meeting these six tests will show how serious the UK government is about improving cancer outcomes.
“We’ve seen progress before, now is the time to act again and make a difference for cancer patients.”
Professor Sir Mike Richards, former national cancer director at the Department of Health and chair of the National Screening Committee, said: “Our previous NHS Cancer Plan was instrumental in improving cancer outcomes, and this one gives us a huge opportunity to make England one of the best countries in the world for cancer survival.
“But to make this happen, it’s essential that the plan has consistent funding, so that the changes we know will save lives from cancer are able to be introduced.
“This will save money in the long term and ensure a better future for generations to come.”
