There is a shortage of around 10,000 probation staff to manage offenders serving sentences in the community, documents seen by the show.
Probation staff supervise offenders after they are released from prison, and check they follow terms of their release such as curfews, not taking drugs, and wearing tags that can restrict their movement. They also protect the public by assessing the risk of reoffending.
A series of documents leaked to the reveal the shortfall of full-time staff dealing with sentence management.
In response, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said it had inherited a probation service “under immense pressure”, and last year recruited 1,000 trainee officers.
According to a government study compiled last year, some 17,170 full-time staff were needed to deal with sentence management in September 2023.
This was prior to the government releasing tens of thousands of offenders early to create more space in overcrowded prisons – creating even more work for the probation service.
According to a sentence management activity review by His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS), there are only 7,236 members of staff in this specific role – around 10,000 fewer than needed.
The understands the findings were compiled through staff surveys, analysis of timesheets, and monitoring how employees work on a daily basis.
In response to the report’s findings, a probation officer told the : “These jobs are the bread and butter of probation, and the situation in terms of staffing is considerably worse than is being thought, especially at a time when the pressure on us is immense.
“It’s infuriating when some of us are being told it’s our fault we’re not doing enough and that we need to up our game, but actually the workload is sky high.”
Probation staff say the early release scheme known as SDS40 has dramatically increased their workload. Between 10 September 2024 and the end of March this year, 26,456 people were released under the scheme.
The staff say failing to monitor released inmates could lead to a surge in reoffending and others going off the official radar, meaning they are completely unsupervised.
In February this year, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood pledged to recruit 1,300 probation officers by April 2026.
At that time, the MoJ said officers had been “asked to do too much for too long” and “burdened with high workloads” – meaning they were unable to pay enough attention to offenders posing the greatest risk.
In some cases, this led to “missed warning signs” where offenders went on to commit serious offences such as murder, the MoJ said.
The probation caseload – the number of offenders staff are looking after – was 241,540 at the end of March 2025 – an increase of 9% over a decade. Staff may have multiple appointments with each offender in a week.
“Someone is going to get seriously hurt because when you’re stressed and overworked you can’t get everything right – it’s just human nature – and that’s why they need thousands of more staff because it could be dangerous otherwise,” another probation officer said.
“They [ministers] are trying to give the impression it’s all OK and they’re pumping in staff, but they’re nowhere near close to filling the gaps. And it can take a year or more to train someone properly.”
Last year’s annual report from HM Inspectorate of Probation cited “chronic under-staffing” and the “knock-on impact on workloads” as key issues of concern.
In March 2025, there were 21,022 full-time probation staff in England and Wales – an increase of 610 on the previous year. Sentence management staff are part of the wider cohort of probation staff.
One probation officer described the workload as “non-stop”, and increasing until “you simply can’t cope”, adding: “It’s just overwhelming.”
Many of the recommendations made in the Independent Sentencing Review earlier this year are expected to be put before parliament next month. They include more offenders being managed in the community, instead of serving jail time. This will again increase the probation workload.
In response to the findings, the MoJ told the that pressure on the probation service “has placed too great a burden on our hardworking staff”.
A spokesperson said they had recently announced a £700m increase in funding by 2028, as well as recruiting more trainee probation officers.
“We are also investing in new technology that reduces the administrative burden on staff time so they can focus on working with offenders and protecting the public,” they added.
