Sir Keir Starmer has confided that he has never played golf before, which may prove to be a problem when he holds a bilateral with Donald Trump at the US president’s Turnberry course in Scotland on Monday.
The location partially explains the nervous energy around the prime minister when he discusses this last-minute arranged meeting, as Trump spends a few days relaxing at his Scottish courses.
“Golf is not something you can pick up in a weekend,” a source close to the PM said, envisaging the two holding their bilateral around 18 holes on the championship course.
But a potential crash course in golf is the least of Sir Keir’s concerns as he prepares for yet another crucial bilateral with a US president with whom he has struck up a politically unlikely friendship.
Top of the agenda will be the steel industry, followed by Ukraine and Gaza – all issues where Sir Keir and Trump still seem far apart.
Men of steel
If sorting out the trade deal was the equivalent of a green on a golf course, Starmer would be on his third attempt with the putter, trying to sink a ball which initially rolled invitingly near to the flag.
Already, we have effectively had two signing ceremonies for a trade agreement to tackle Trump’s “freedom day” tariffs.
The first occasion in May, when it was described as “the big and beautiful deal”, seemed to have resolved almost everything. Then nothing happened, until the two men appeared together in Canada last month with a signed deal, which the president almost immediately fumbled onto the floor.
But even after that, there was one crucial issue left over – steel.
Trump put tariffs of 25 per cent on steel and then increased them to 50 per cent for the rest of the world, with a threat that the UK would rise from 25 to 50 per cent if it did not sort the issue out.
Time is running out, and with the taxpayer now in hock to the future of British Steel and the entire industry staring at a precipice, Starmer needs to get the zero per cent tariff he was promised back in May.
Unfortunately, there appears to be no immediate sign of that happening.
Palestinian recognition
There is a lot of speculation within Labour this weekend that Starmer wants to recognise the state of Palestine as French president Emmanuel Macron did on Thursday.
But he cannot do it until after he has had his meeting with Trump – otherwise, the inevitable row over it would dominate proceedings.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio made it clear that the US was disgusted with France and thought Macron was “rewarding terrorism” by Hamas. A similar angry view would be taken with the UK.
However, the two do need to discuss the issues as the crisis comes to a head. Somehow, Trump’s enthusiasm for brokering a ceasefire there needs to be renewed; some think Starmer is the man to do that.
His ability to boost the president’s ego has become the blueprint for international leaders to deal with the second Maga term.
Without US leadership, there is a danger that the war will just go on and thousands of people trapped in Gaza will simply starve to death.
In many ways, Starmer will be speaking for the so-called E3 group of UK, France and Germany on the issue after the emergency phone call with Macron and German chancellor Friedrich Merz on Friday.
Not forgetting Ukraine
The Middle East may not even be Starmer’s biggest international priority in these talks.
He is desperate for a solution to the Ukraine problem and recently, with Macron and Merz, has been pushing ahead with the “coalition of the willing” to provide a safeguard for Ukraine after a peace deal.
He and Macron announced new details and plans for the coalition after the French president’s recent state visit.
But they are moving ahead without the one thing they need – a promise by the US to back them up militarily if things go wrong.
Trump has resisted this idea, much preferring to get a share of Ukraine’s mineral resources. He has shown no interest at all in Starmer’s plan. But the British prime minister needs somehow to get him on side on Monday.
The state visit
While this is a private trip for Trump to look at his personal business interests (and play golf on his courses), it is a precursor to a much bigger visit in September.
The invitation for a state visit came from the King and was delivered by his prime minister, but details of the political side of the historic trip will be discussed.
There may be an awkward moment regarding why Macron got to address a joint sitting of the Houses of Parliament and Trump will not.
The excuse that it is the day after parliament rises does not hold water because MPs and peers came back to hear the late Pope Benedict address them in 2010 in identical circumstances.
There will be no shortage of right-wing British Trump friends visiting him over the next few days, including Nigel Farage and fellow “Brexit bad boy” Andy Wigmore, who will point out that others were treated better.
How Starmer can win over Trump
It is understood that the prime minister came up with a solution to deal with the diplomatic problem of having to play golf, at a recent social event in Westminster.
“We toss a coin. If the president wins, we play golf. If I win, we play football,” the PM is understood to have suggested.
Given how much Trump enjoyed himself with Chelsea players after presenting the World Club Cup to them in New Jersey earlier this month, that may be a solution.
However, it is going to take more than a coin flip for Sir Keir to persuade the president on these other issues.
The one thing that matters, though, is that Trump values relationships and trusts people who are straight with him and give him their trust.
Back at the G7 in Canada, Trump made it clear that the UK will do well with him because he likes Starmer.
He said: “The UK is very well protected. You know why? Because I like them. The prime minister has done a really good job. He has done what other people have been talking about for six years, and he has done it.”
Starmer is going to need all the charm that he seems to have reserved for his international duties to get what he wants on Monday. But recent history suggests that it could all be within his grasp.
