A county’s young people are “haemorrhaging away” from the area amid concerns about dwindling rural populations, a former council leader has warned.
Pembrokeshire’s schools have seen pupil numbers fall by more than 2,000 since 1996 and the council is planning to consult on closing two others.
Councillor John Davies said the trend was “unsustainable”, with schools getting emptier but doctors’ surgeries getting more crowded.
The Welsh government said it recognised the challenge of demographic change and was continuing to monitor trends.
Davies is part of a working group looking at the future of Pembrokeshire’s schools.
Council figures show the number of primary school pupils in the Preseli area had fallen by 19% between 2015 and 2024 and 6.6% in Tenby over the same period.
He said: “For the first time in 30 years we’re spending more on social care than we are on education. The demographics are becoming an unsustainable challenge.”
Davies said investment in rural areas needed to happen “sooner rather than later” and could be a “catalyst for economic renewal”.
“We’re seeing investment in town regeneration and cities, and we’ve seen investment in rail infrastructure in south-east wales.
“But there’s never a mention of what’s happening in investment terms in rural north Pembrokeshire or not even in west Wales.”
He warned rural areas could face decline similar to that experienced by industrial communities in south Wales in the 1980s.
Pembrokeshire council is consulting on closing Ysgol Clydau in Tegryn and Manorbier VC School in Tenby.
Caroline Farnden’s two children are among 34 pupils at the Ysgol Clydau, and she said she lived in fear at its possible closure.
“You’ll lose the community feel because it’s taking everything out of the community,” she said.
“What else are they going to do? Are they going to close the hall as well? The pub? There’ll be nothing for people in the village.”
Fellow parent Steven Chambers said the closure would only accelerate the trend of an ageing population, discouraging younger families from moving in.
Welsh government projections show the number of pupils could drop by almost 50,000 across the country by 2040.
In Pembrokeshire, numbers have fallen 12% since 1996 and a further 11.7% fall in the population aged 15 and under is predicted over the next 10 to 15 years.
Carmarthenshire council confirmed it had 17 schools with fewer than 50 pupils.
Laura Doel of the school leaders’ union NAHT said: “When birth rates fall and families move in search of employment opportunities, this inevitably has an impact upon school rolls.
“With funding allocated on a per pupil basis, this further reduces school budgets which are already under severe pressure after years of under-investment.”
Amanda Hill-Dixon, of the Wales Centre for Public Policy, said the age profile of rural areas was “really changing”.
“So what we have in rural Wales is younger people, and families and children moving out of rural Wales to cities in Wales or outside of Wales altogether,” she said.
“And then there’s in migration of older people to Wales, and especially to rural Wales.”
She said there were a “range of implications” for public services, culture and language, with more spending needed on health and social care, leaving less for children’s services and schools.
“We can get into a doom loop where, because there’s fewer services for children and families and young people, children and families don’t want to stay in that area, and children and families don’t want to move to that area.”
She said a population taskforce, like one taken up by the Scottish government in 2019, may be needed in Wales.
Alongside monitoring the trends of demographic changes, the Welsh government said local authorities had to comply with the School Organisation Code when proposing “significant changes to schools”, which includes a presumption against the closure of rural schools.
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