Sir Keir Starmer’s much-lauded “one in, one out” migrant return deal with Emmanuel Macron is a “publicity stunt” that won’t win back voters, Britain’s leading pollsters have warned.
Professor Sir John Curtice, Lord Robert Hayward and Luke Tryl have suggested that the small scale of the agreement, which will only see a tiny fraction of those arriving on small boats returned to France, will have little or no impact on the prime minister’s dwindling popularity because of record low trust in the government.
The problem was underlined on Thursday when more than 700 migrants arrived on small boats just hours before the announcement of the deal, which will reportedly see only 50 returned a week, although ministers have refused to discuss specific numbers.
It comes as new polling reveals concerns about the government’s wider migration policy, with a survey of Labour party members, seen by The Independent, showing opposition to Sir Keir’s plans to crack down on legal migration as well.
According to a Survation poll of 1,304 Labour Party members for LabourList, 53 per cent oppose plans to allow migrants the right to apply for citizenship only after 10 years of being in the UK on a work visa, up from five years. Only 36 per cent support it.
The measure is a key part of bringing down legal migration, along with banning the overseas recruitment of care workers.
But it highlights splits within the Labour Party over the plans for both legal and illegal migration, with some on the left unhappy with the deal, which will see the UK accept the same number of asylum seekers with family or strong ties to the UK in return.
The focus on tackling both legal and illegal migration has been part of a strategy to tackle the loss of votes to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
The most recent Techne UK poll for The Independent put Reform up one point to 29 per cent, seven points ahead of Labour, who were down one on 22 per cent.
Reflecting on whether the migrants return policy will impress voters, Prof Curtice said: “I would be surprised if it were to have a ‘significant’ impact.”
Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and highly respected pollster, said the announcement was “a publicity stunt”, adding: “The deal will have no impact really. There are so many questions about the plan.”
He also noted that the real problem for Sir Keir and his government is a record-low level of confidence in the government.
“I think the figure for net confidence level may be at or on a par with the worst ever,” he added.
Only 23 per cent expressed confidence in Sir Keir’s government, according to the Techne UK poll, compared to 63 per cent not confident, giving an overall rating of -40.
Meanwhile, Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common think tank, said the glimmer of hope for the government would be images of migrants who had come to the UK on small boats being returned to France.
On Friday, more than 350 migrants crossed the English Channel, according to the Home Office.
Mr Tryl said: “I suspect this deal, in of itself, wouldn’t make much of an impact. But if it is seen like ‘this is happening’, and I think particularly once people see people actually being removed, I think that is going to be something that has the potential to be quite powerful.”
However, he said that the small boats crisis and the rising number of people coming across the English Channel illegally – currently at over 21,000 and 53 per cent higher than this time last year – was seen “as evidence that the government has lost control”.
Mr Tryl added: “We have around seven in 10 people saying the government isn’t in control, and as I say, Channel crossings are one of the most visible signs of that.”
He noted: “It’s interesting, they’ve avoided the ‘stop the boats’ language used by Rishi Sunak. I think they’ve been quite sober about this, which I think is good, given where public expectations are.
“But there is no doubt that Channel crossings are a major motivator of support for Reform. They define the immigration debate. If you ask people the priority between tackling small boats and levels of migration overall, 74 per cent say the priority is small boats.”
There is some disquiet on the left of the Labour Party that plans to open “safe and legal routes” for asylum seekers are no longer part of the discussion as Sir Keir “obsesses” about the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform.
One senior figure on the left of the party said: “We need to zoom out a bit more to have that perspective. I don’t at all think it will be enough to satiate Reform and those demanding a very hard line approach.
“The conversation needs to be broadened out to proper discussion on safe legal pathways and migrants working whilst claims are processed.”
Another left-wing MP described the left of the party as “wounded” with recent announcements and suggested that the question is “whether MPs have the stomach for a coup” against the prime minister.
But one cheerleader for the announcement with France is Labour’s MP for Dover and Deal, Mike Tapp, whose constituency sees most of those arriving via small boats, and who has been calling for much tougher action.
He said: “Massive strides have been made in tackling the small boat crisis. What will Reform do? They’ll continue to fall apart. This, combined with record deportations and removals and taking down criminal gangs with counter terror powers – will make a difference.”
The government has been contacted for a response.