Between them, Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard have won the last five Tours de France. Pogacar looked near-invincible last year as he romped to victory with a six-minute margin; Vingegaard was a clear second, a mere three months after sustaining a litany of injuries, including a punctured lung, in a horrific racing crash.
The year prior, Vingegaard came out on top, with Pogacar the only rider to trouble him; that came with the Slovenian still nursing a wrist fracture sustained in the spring. Even handicapped, the pair remain a league above the rest of the peloton.
In theory the pair are significantly more finely-balanced heading into Lille for the Grand Depart this Saturday. Neither is carrying a major injury.
But while the playing field between the pair is slightly more level than in previous years, it’s the defending champion who still holds the upper hand, having won the Criterium du Dauphine warm-up race while scarcely having to get out of the saddle.
Vingegaard has looked vulnerable since a concussion in Paris-Nice in March, and is lacking racing mileage in the legs, having trimmed his calendar as a result. But the Dane is a wily and calculating racer and will draw on his wealth of experience to take the fight to Pogacar – and if things go to plan, emerge victorious.
The major advantage Vingegaard holds over Pogacar is in the formidable strength of his team. Both Visma-Lease a Bike and UAE Team Emirates-XRG are fielding their A teams for the Tour.
But while UAE tends to perform well with Pogacar in attendance, the team has shown a fascinating tendency to break down without the Slovenian as the glue holding it together – and even, occasionally, with him there, too. Eyebrows were raised when Juan Ayuso appeared reluctant to pull for Pogacar on stage four of Tour last year, with teammate Joao Almeida looking visibly frustrated with the Spaniard. UAE has plenty of superstars in its ranks, but there’s a downside to that too.
Visma, by contrast, is a more cohesive, seamless unit of domestiques. Vingegaard can rely on the services of Matteo Jorgenson, double defending champion in Paris-Nice, as well as 2023 Vuelta a Espana champion Sepp Kuss and recent Giro d’Italia victor Simon Yates, in the mountains. The trio are among the best climbers in the world and while Yates is a newer addition to the team, joining over the winter, Jorgenson and Kuss are both stalwarts of the Visma project who have proven their loyalty and worth in the high mountains.
On the flatter ground, Vingegaard will be shepherded by the might and muscle of European time-trial champion Edoardo Affini, Victor Campenaerts, and Tiesj Benoot.
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The team’s biggest trump card is Wout van Aert, one of the biggest engines in the peloton and a rider capable of performing on any terrain. The Belgian has already delivered one Grand Tour-winning support ride this year, emptying his lungs for Yates on the penultimate stage of the Giro, going up the road as a satellite rider and doubling the Brit’s advantage over his pursuers on the valley road to Sestriere.
Visma have endured infighting in the past – Kuss can attest to that, having been attacked by teammates Vingegaard and Primoz Roglic en route to winning the Vuelta, before the team hastily ordered them to cooperate in the face of social media backlash. It seems the management has learnt from that affair: this feels like a team carefully hand-picked to avoid any side quests.
And Visma’s brilliant teamwork has been the key to isolating Pogacar in the past, reeling in the Slovenian’s attacks during the 2022 and 2023 Tours, before setting off a chain of counter-attacks by different members of the squad, eventually wearing his resistance down.
Beyond his team, Vingegaard may have a couple of other tricks up his sleeve. The route features several key climbs that the Dane has stamped his authority on before: the Col de la Loze and Hautacam in particular were crucial to breaking Pogacar in 2023, the last edition Vingegaard won.
Since then the world champion has worked hard to erase any trace of weakness at high altitude, so the psychological impact of those climbs being back on the menu may be minimal. But it remains a possibility that he will be vulnerable there again.
Vingegaard’s famously cool head, compared to that of his more impetuous rival, may come in handy if Pogacar makes a mistake, whether that be wearing himself out with attacks or failing to fuel properly.
Then there’s the mountainous time trial, stage 13’s 11km uphill run to the Peyragudes ski station. Again, Vingegaard has put time into Pogacar on this sort of terrain before, notably the Passy to Combloux time trial in 2023, which he rode a minute and 38 seconds faster. The Slovenian looked a little off the pace in the recent Dauphine TT, so that may be a stage Visma has earmarked to test his resolve.
Visma may not need any of this, of course. Vingegaard sounded more bullish than usual on the eve of the race, telling reporters, “I can say that I’m stronger than ever… I can say I’m on the highest level that I’ve ever been.”
He’ll certainly need to be, and his teammates will have to use all of their patience, nous, and race experience to get the better of the three-time champion this time around.
