When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the IDF would strike Iran last week, he made no secret of his long-running ambition to wipe out Tehran’s authoritarian regime.
Addressing the Iranian people, he said: “I believe that the day of your liberation is near; and when that happens, the great friendship between our two ancient peoples will flourish once again.”
Days later, his call for regime change was echoed by President Donald Trump, who has refused to rule out the US joining the conflict. On Wednesday, Trump demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei – and claimed that the US could assassinate him if and when it chooses to.
The Ayatollah hit back on Wednesday, warning of “serious, irreparable consequences” if the US were to directly assist Israel in its bombing campaign.
A direct strike on the supreme leader would mark a dramatic escalation – and there is no obvious successor were the regime to fall.
Here, The Independent looks at the different groups who form Iran’s fragmented opposition and who could vie for the Iranian leadership in the event of a power vacuum.
The People’s Mujahideen Organisation
The remnants of the once-powerful leftist militant group which bombed the Shah’s government and US targets in the 1970s still wield a degree of influence in Iran – and now advocate for the overthrow of the Iranian government.
Known by its Persian name, the Mujahideen-e Khalq Organisation (MEK or MKO), the group fell out with the other factions alongside which it deposed the Iranian Shah and replaced the Imperial State of Iran with the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979.
But the Mujahideen soon developed large numbers of enemies in Iran after siding with Iraq during the war of 1980-88.
Massoud Rajavi, its former leader, remains in exile and has not been seen for more than 20 years. His wife, Maryam Rajavi, is now in control, but the group has shown little evidence of activity within Iran’s border for years.
Instead, the group is the driving force behind the National Council of Resistance of Iran, led by Ms Rajavi, which has an active presence in many Western countries.
The Mujahideen has been criticised by rights groups for what they describe as cult-like behaviour and the abuse of its followers – but the group denies these allegations.
The Monarchists
When revolution swept through Iran in 1979, transforming the country into an Islamic Republic, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi – Iran’s last Shah – fled the country. He died just a year later in Egypt in 1980.
Reza Pahlavi, his son, was heir to the Iranian throne at the time for the revolution. He now lives in the US, from where he calls for regime change through nonviolent means and a referendum on a new government.
But it is unclear whether Mr Pahlavi would be a popular choice within Iran – despite having support among the Iranian diaspora. There are also many splits even among pro-monarchist groups in Iran.
Ethnic minority groups
Iran’s Sunni Muslim Kurdish and Baluch minorities have long expressed opposition to Tehran’s Persion-speaking and Shi’ite government.
Kurdish groups have carried out periods of active insurgency against government forces in western areas of Iran – where they form a majority.
Meanwhile in Baluchistan, along the border with Pakistan, opposition ranges from supporters of Sunni clerics to armed jihadists linked to al-Qaeda.
Major protests in Iran have often been the fiercest in the Kurdish and Baluchi areas – but there is no strong, unified resistance against Tehran’s rule.
Leaders of mass protests movements
Mass protests movements have swept Iran at different points for many decades, often with key figureheads at the helm.
After a presidential election in 2009, thousands filled the streets of Tehran and other major cities as they accused authorities of rigging the vote in favour of incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who faced electoral threat from rival candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi.
Mr Mousavi’s ‘Green Movement’ was crushed and he was put under house arrest, along with political ally and former parliament speaker Mehdi Karoubi.
The movement, which sought democratic reform within the existing system of the Islamic republic, is now widely seen as defunct.
In 2022 major protests again gripped Iran centred on women’s rights. Narges Mohammadi, a 2023 Nobel peace prize winner who served as one of the figureheads, is currently in Iran’s notorious Evin prison.
A power struggle
There are various scenarios that could play out if the supreme leader is deposed – but the most likely is a potentially violent power struggle.
The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could impose martial law and wrestle control of the country in the short-term if the clerical elite are removed from power.
A civil war in Iran would bring serious disorder to the Middle East and risk destabilising Iraq, Turkey and potentially Pakistan.
Mr Trump need only look at Afghanistan and Libya for examples of the danger of ousting a regime without an obvious plan for a transition to liberal democracy.
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