Are mental health conditions overdiagnosed in the UK – and what does it cost the NHS? – UK Times

As the welfare system comes under a magnifying glass with major benefit cuts set to be announced by the government this week, the health secretary suggested people are being “overdiagnosed” with mental health conditions.

Speaking with Laura Kuenssberg on the BBC, Wes Streeting said he agreed with experts’ warnings that mental health issues might be overdiagnosed, while also saying mental health services are at a “breaking point”.

“Here’s the other thing, mental wellbeing, illness, it’s a spectrum and I think definitely there’s an overdiagnosis but there’s too many people being written off,” said Mr Streeting.

The health secretary has reiterated Labour’s pledge to add 8,500 more mental health staff to cut backlogs, which are currently at 1.6 million people for mental health referrals.

The government is reportedly preparing to announce cuts to Personal Independence Payments (PIP), making it harder to become eligible for disability payments, which have risen largely due to mental health claimants.

But what does the data say on mental health?

Is there an overdiagnosis problem?

Medical experts have given arguments in both camps, with underdiagnosis, overdiagnosis, and misdiagnosis all concerns within the community.

There is little data available on mental health diagnoses in general – and the existing data is of “poor quality”, according to the NHS.

The information that does exist, showing primary diagnoses in the NHS from 2016/17 to 2023/24, does not depict a clear increase in mental health diagnoses over this period.

In fact, for all mental health disorders with depression in the name – ranging from moderate depression to bipolar and schizophrenia – annual diagnoses appear to have gone down slightly since 2016. It should be noted however that there are issues with the inconsistency of this dataset and a lack of standardised terminology for mental health disorders.

In 2019/20, going into the pandemic and lockdowns, the data shows a spike in depression and anxiety diagnoses.

The number of diagnoses for anxiety-related disorders remains consistent at around 15,000 each year, according to the data.

Meanwhile, post-Covid there has been a higher rate of combined anxiety-depressive disorder diagnoses. Some of these will be double-counted with anxiety or depression figures.

The number of people in contact with mental health services has nearly doubled in the past decade – up from 1.2 million people in September 2016 to 2 million people in January 2025, according to NHS data.

Much of this jump has occurred since the pandemic.

In conjunction, NHS spending on mental health has also been on the rise, from £11.6 billion in 2016/17 to £18.2 billion in 2024/25.

This represents a 63 per cent boost for mental health spending in eight years and makes up around 10.5 per cent of the NHS budget.

The greater investment in mental health services and the increase in people using them go hand-in-hand.

Therefore, a greater number of patients does not necessarily represent an overdiagnosis issue but may indicate that services are reaching more people in need.

Nonetheless, mental health disorders also appear to be driving the increase in sick benefits in the UK.

The latest figures from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) show nearly 5 million people are entitled to sick benefits in England and Scotland as of August 2024.

This marks a 23 per cent increase from pre-Covid levels, with some 1.1 million more people entitled to sick benefits since before the pandemic.

The Independent’s analysis of DWP figures shows the single highest reason for sick benefit entitlement is psychiatric orders, making up 4 in 10 of all PIP cases.

Some 1.4 million people diagnosed with psychiatric disorders are entitled to sick benefits via PIP claims as of August 2024.

All the while, health and disability benefits spending is expected to rise from £64.7 billion in 2023/24 to £100.7 billion in 2029/30.

Mr Streeting and the Labour government are rumoured to be taking aim at welfare, with billions in benefit cuts on the cards.

The changes will include making it harder to qualify for the PIP, likely by changing the descriptors assessors use to determine if an applicant is eligible for the benefit.

It has also been reported that ministers are considering a ‘right to try’ policy which would see disabled benefit claimants able to retain their benefits should they undertake employment that does not become long-term.

A DWP spokesperson said: “We have been clear that the current welfare system is broken and needs reform, so it is fairer on the taxpayer and helps long-term sick and disabled people who can work to find employment, whilst ensuring it provides support for those who need it most.”