There is no chance that Volodymyr Zelensky would find himself stepping off a plane in Jeddah to gird himself for a dish of American humble pie if Donald Trump had not so comprehensively backed Russia in its war against Ukraine.
Until last week, Russia was not winning. Ukraine was not winning either. There was a stalemate in the three-year conflict which Moscow was unlikely to be able to sustain for much longer.
Ukrainian soldiers near Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kupyansk and, until recently, in Sumy province – which represent more than 75 per cent of the entire front line – all said that they saw a significant reduction in the capacity, quality, and energy of Russian forces fighting them.
Ukrainian sources said US intelligence assessments sent to Washington reflect the view that the country is not on its knees and that, if it were able to hold the line against Russia for another 18 months, they believe they can collapse the Russian army completely.
It is clear that’s not the assessment of the White House where Trump has repeatedly said, indeed shouted at Zelensky, that Ukraine doesn’t “hold the cards”.
That is because Trump has given Vladimir Putin two aces. Plucking them from the fingers of Zelensky, he first slipped the Kremlin the suspension of military aid to Ukraine. Then, when it looked like Europe would step in and fill the gap, he slapped his hand over Zelensky’s eyes with a ban on intelligence sharing with Kyiv.
The result has been a sudden assault by Russia in the Kursk region – a move that looks coordinated between the Kremlin and the White House.
The Russian successes in Kursk have relieved some of the pressure on its troops in the east who have actually begun to lose small patches of ground in fighting near Pokrovsk.
“We are not losing and the Russians are not winning. They’re slowing their tempo, sending much smaller groups on the offensive and unable to make any significant moves in the east,” said a battalion commander “Kalas” who was fighting on the eastern front.
“I don’t think they still have the capacity that they once did and they definitely use a lot less artillery. They’re terrified of our drones.”
Now, there are reports that Ukraine’s desperation to have the military aid and intelligence support returned to it means that Kyiv may agree to a ceasefire in the air in talks this week in Jeddah.
That would result, if it held, in relief from relentless Russian drone and missile attacks. But it would also mean that Ukraine’s long-range sorties against Russian oil refineries, air bases and logistics nodes would be suspended.
A ceasefire that bought time for Russia, while Ukraine got no reinforcements, would be a disaster for Kyiv. And if a ceasefire broke down, it is now certain that Zelensky, or his successor, would be blamed for the breach by the Trump administration.
This would mean no support for Ukraine from America and every chance that the last major card to be used by Trump against Zelensky – the suspension of the Starlink satellite broadband network – would be played for Russia.
“We’re used to being betrayed … We can fight, it’s in our genes, we can fight to the last Ukrainian – it’s not what we want. We have had people who have betrayed us inside the country and outside Ukraine,” said Roman, a soldier with Ukraine’s 3rd Brigade who was wounded fighting in Bakhmut.
“This is our destiny. I believe. This is not the first time we’re fighting under such circumstances.”
