The number of obese children and teenagers in the UK will rise by more than half by 2050, new research suggests, with children as young as five much more likely to be affected.
For girls aged five to 14 in the UK, obesity rates will rise from 12 per cent in 2021 to 18.4 per cent in 2050, according to research published in The Lancet medical journal – a rise of 53 per cent. For boys in that age group, obesity rates will rise 57 per cent over the same period, from 9.9 per cent to 15.5 per cent.
PA analysis of the data found that for girls and young women aged 15 to 24, obesity rates will jump by 49 per cent from 15.4 per cent in 2021 to 22.9 per cent in 2050, while for boys and young men, obesity rates will rise by 51 per cent, from 12.1 per cent to 18.3 per cent.
The research estimates global overweight and obesity rates through to 2050. In a separate editorial published in The Lancet, experts said the global picture represents a “profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure”.
Overall, The Lancet study suggested more than half of adults and a third of children and adolescents across the globe will be overweight or obese by 2050.
Experts said overweight and obesity rates in adults and children have more than doubled over the past three decades (1990-2021), affecting 2.11 billion adults and 493 million young people worldwide in 2021.
Taking being overweight and obesity together, some 39.2 per cent of girls aged five to nine in the UK will be obese by 2050 (up from 31 per cent in 2021), while 31.3 per cent of boys will also be overweight or obese (up from 24.4 per cent).
In 10-to 14-year-olds, some 43 per cent of girls will be overweight or obese by 2050, up from 34.7 per cent, while 37.6 per cent of boys will be, up from 29.9 per cent.
Among those aged 15 to 19, the rise in being overweight and obesity is from 32.6 per cent to 41 per cent of girls, and from 28.2 per cent to 35.6 per cent of boys.
The data further shows that obesity in adults aged 25 and over will jump from 31.7 per cent of women in 2021 to 42.6 per cent in 2050 (a 34 per cent rise), while obesity in men will rise from 29.3 per cent to 39.5 per cent (a 35 per cent rise).
When combined, some 23.4 million adults in this age group in the UK will be obese.
When the number of overweight people is added, some 43.4 million adults aged 25 and over are expected to either be overweight or obese.
Without “urgent policy reform and action”, around 60 per cent of adults (3.8 billion) and a third (31 per cent) of all children and adolescents (746 million) around the world are forecast to be either overweight or obese by 2050.
Globally, the predicted surge in child and adolescent obesity is also expected to outpace the increase in youngsters being overweight.
Lead author, Professor Emmanuela Gakidou, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in the US, said: “The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure.
“Governments and the public health community can use our country-specific estimates on the stage, timing, and speed of current and forecasted transitions in weight to identify priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies.”
The authors said more recent generations are gaining weight faster than previous ones and obesity is occurring earlier, increasing the risk of type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease and cancer at younger ages.
The study did not consider the potential impact of weight-loss injections, which may alter the longer-term forecasting trends of overweight and obesity.
